I am still willing to give Mr. Trump the benefit of the doubt. We have no actual policymaking to judge yet, and at least some of the people he is surrounding himself with look capable. I admit, however, that the burden of evidence is getting heavy. The president-elect's tweets, on their own, are evidence that he has tendency to act long before thinking. Last week's presser also provided a timely reminder that we are dealing with a volatile character. I understand that infuriating "soft" liberals, such as yours truly, is exactly what Mr. Trump and his strategists want. I have no doubt that the incoming administration's communication "style" is carefully planned. The base loves it! But problems are brewing, chiefly among which is the growing chasm between Mr. Trump and the intelligence apparatus upon which he will so desperately depend for policymaking when he takes office.
Read MoreMy last post was a copout, but necessary for me to express where I think things stand without going off on a million tangents. I think that maintaining an ultra-cynical view on markets, and the economy, now is critical. Recent political events have injected a huge amount of emotion, and I dare say anger, into the economic and financial market debate. It’s tempting to jump in both feet first, but investors are ill served by letting their own views and biases steer their decisions. This will sound obvious, but it isn’t always easy to follow.
Sometimes, though, a cynical approach can only come after a cathartic release of your own opinion and views. This post does just that, and I am going to piss off a lot of people. So close your browser if you’re not interested.
Read MoreI am in New York this week to see clients and prospects, which is why I haven't yet had time to say much about Mr. Trump snatching the prize or the crazy market moves that have followed. I don't see much change . The espresso in Murray Hill, served by Chinese immigrations, is exquisite as ever and New Yorkers remain notoriously impatient, and bad, drivers. I do notice a big increase in TV-ads for Range Rover and Jaguar, though, so maybe there is a concrete sign of the alleged rapprochement between the U.S. and the U.K. in the aftermath of Brexit and Mr. Trump's victory.
Read MoreAfter a week's break, and a detour, I am back in the saddle for a busy run-in to Christmas. The main market mover of note, while trawling the museums and bars of Paris, was that global equities finally showed a bit of weakness. The MSCI World slid 1.8% last week, down 4.8% from its peak in August, which means that the index is flat as a pancake year-to-date. A belated reaction to the recent mini tantrum in bond markets, or a knee-jerk reaction to tighter polls across the pond, are probably the lazy strategist's reason for the sell off. But it has been coming regardless.
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