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Is a soft landing in the bag?

According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen economists who predicted that a sustained period of high U.S. unemployment—and perhaps even recession—would be needed to bring down inflation are now “eating their words”. This follows earlier comments by Ms. Yellen last month that a soft landing is “on track.” Claudia Sahm, a US macroeconomist, agrees. In an interview with the FT earlier this month, she says:

The soft landing is not here yet. But it is in the bag.

Markets seem to agree with the assessment by the Treasury Secretary and Ms Sahm; bonds have rallied like a bat of hell in the past month—temporarily pegged back by a semi-hot NFP report on Friday—and equities are in a good mood too. November, I am reliably told by the financial media, was the best month for a standard 60/40 portfolio … ever. And why wouldn’t markets be celebrating? Inflation in the developed world is now falling rapidly, and what was a significant inflation shock in core prices has now been turned on its head, as the charts below show.

The Inflation Trade(s)

I've written a lot about inflation recently. I still think markets are at the mercy of inflation and the triumvirate of doom, which means that the U.S. inflation report is likely to remain the most economic piece of data for markets, for the foreseeable future. I haven't been looking at the inflation trades for a while, however, which I will seek to make amends on here. Falling inflation eventually will allow central banks to perform the much-discussed pivot, both in terms of the speed of tightening and eventual terminal rate. The latter follows naturally from the fact the tightening cycle's end point inevitably draws nearer as central banks continue to raise rates. An even bigger question is what inflation regime will emerge once the current fever breaks—and it will break, eventually. Markets ought to be able to tell us something about that.

At the Mercy of Inflation

I’ll let the charts do the talking this week. This is always a good idea when it’s been a while since you’ve had a broader look at markets. As far as I can see, not much has changed. The U.S. CPI report is still the most important economic report of the month. The violent sell-off in response to what was a small upside surprise to U.S. core inflation in August is all you need to know. Markets would like to see a sustained roll-over in inflation, and an associated pivot in Fed tightening. So far, this is not happening. Equities have suffered badly in the wake of the August CPI data, and a 75bp rate hike from the Fed later this month is now a done deal. Some sell-siders have even stuck their neck out, calling for a 100bp hike. It’s gnarly.

Has Inflation (Fear) Peaked?

I don’t have a definitive answer to the question posed above, but I think it is fair to say that markets traded last week as if the answer is: ‘yes’. In Europe, bund yields plunged below 1.5%, after touching almost 2% earlier in the month, and Dec-22 euribor futures are now pricing-in 50bp less tightening than immediately after the June ECB meeting. The catalyst: a below-consensus PMI report and news that Russia is slowly, but surely turning off gas supply to Europe. In the UK, bond yields have fallen too, in response to a below-consensus core CPI print. And finally, in the US, Jerome Powell’s comment, in a testimony to Congress, that a recession is ‘a possibility’ as the Fed embarks on a series of rate hikes, and QT, similarly drove down bond yields across the curve.

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