Posts in China
Trade the "Maybes" at your peril

I am in New York this week to see clients and prospects, which is why I haven't yet had time to say much about Mr. Trump snatching the prize or the crazy market moves that have followed. I don't see much change . The espresso in Murray Hill, served by Chinese immigrations, is exquisite as ever and New Yorkers remain notoriously impatient, and bad, drivers. I do notice a big increase in TV-ads for Range Rover and Jaguar, though, so maybe there is a concrete sign of the alleged rapprochement between the U.S. and the U.K. in the aftermath of Brexit and Mr. Trump's victory. 

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Do or die for the Reverse Twist story

Investors are beginning to get seriously interested in the idea that the BOJ and the ECB will change the composition of their bond purchases to steepen the yield curve. In effect, this would be the opposite of the Fed’s Operation Twist, which saw QE purchases concentrated on the long-end, chiefly to lower the yield on mortgage-backed securities. I think this story, at least partly, is to blame for the recent nudge higher in global bond yields. But we will know soon enough. This week's BOJ meeting should give us a hint of whether this narrative has any legs. 

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