The inflation and interest rate shocks are fading; what next?

I have a few speaking engagements coming up, prompting me to update my view on the world beyond the borders of the Eurozone, which makes up the day job. One trend that I am looking forward to present to, and discuss with, investors and capital allocators is the tension between signs that the inflation and interest rate shocks are now fading, in a cyclical sense, and the risk that inflation will stabilise above 2%, posing a challenge for monetary policymakers. Will they channel their inner Volcker or fudge the 2% inflation target?

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Global Economy, International Trade and Economics , Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policyclaus visteseninflation, interest rates, PMI, prices, hikes, monetary policy, bonds, yields, fiscal policy, QE, Dario Perkins
The Demographic Transition

This is the landing page for my most ambitious non-fiction project to date. My writings on demographics are scattered all over this blog—though my master’s thesis is a baseline for a lot of my thoughts—and so, incidentally, is the work of my late friend Edward Hugh on the same matter. Randy McDonald has been stalwartly keeping the old Demography.Matters blog up to date, an effort which is badly in need of a new more modern and well-publicised platform.

I have been thinking about and studying demographics and population dynamics for well over 10 years, and this is my attempt to synthesise my thoughts. I will warm up with a simple account of the demographic transition, posted below, before moving on to the principal components of this process; mortality and fertility. I will then, eventually, examine how demographics drive economic processes, principally via the effect of ageing on growth and capital flows, expanding on the work that I have already done. I will post this work in piecemeal fashion inviting comments as I go along before combining everything into a coherent volume. When Google first introduced its Blogger platform it did so, I believe, under the banner of perpetual beta, a spirit that I agree with. I will post a final, and fully edited, volume eventually, but I also want to draw back the curtain slowly and gradually, if only to keep up the publishing cadence on this site. The meaning of “landing page” in this context is no more than a repository for the list of references and the individual chapters, both of which will be updated here as I go along. Each chapter, however, will have its own independent permalink too.

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Demographicsclaus vistesenUnited Kingdomdemographics, the demographic transition, fertility, mortality, birth rates, genders, sexual selection, reproduction, birth postponement, population forecasts, ageing populations, global ageing, ageing
Japan's disappearing population

Japan invariably looms as the central case study for the economic and societal effects of rapid fertility decline, population decline and ageing. Japan is, measured by median age, the oldest country on earth, excluding the greying millionaires of Monaco and the some-5,000 people on British St. Helena. At the end of 2021, Japan had a median age of 48.4, well ahead of the second major country on the list, Italy, with a median age of 46.8. Japan is about to get older still. According to preliminary estimates, the country’s fertility rate fell further last year, albeit marginally, while the gap between births and deaths remained wide as ever. The number of live births fell by 5.0%, to 770.774, while deaths rose by 9.0%, to 1.57 million. Japan’s rapidly ageing population is the result of a quicker and more sustained post-1945 fertility transition than in other developed economies.

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Asia, Demographics, Japanclaus vistesenJapan, demographics, population, ageing, ageing populations, global ageing, fertility, birth rates, birth postponement, tempo effects