I’ve recently come back from a week on Ibiza—the smaller and cooler of the main Spanish Mediterranean isles—enjoying what has to be one of the most fantastic climates on earth. I come back to the realisation that I could have been more spendthrift in the pool bar despite its grotesquely overpriced drinks and snacks. Stocks are flying, credit spreads are narrow and volatility has plunged to a new low for the year. My relatively defensive portfolio is currently tracking a punchy 3.8% monthly gain for May, just shy of the 4.4% rise in the S&P 500. Long may it continue. I will have more to say about this in due course, but in the first instance, my recent work suggests that this rally has one strong tailwind on its side; the cyclical picture in the global economy has improved. My measures of global cyclical activity hit a new high at the end of Q1, and into Q2, from a trough last year, and cyclical equity returns are now re-accelerating, after softening a touch at the start of the year.
Read MoreI am still collecting my thoughts, and catching up with work, after holiday, so a few Random Shots are in order. For general reading inspiration I’d recommend Aeon, Arts and Letters Daily, The Hedgehog Review and The Point. I try to consume as much from all of these as I can, in between the mandatory market/investment-related research.
Read MoreThese exercises inevitably turn into a "look how smart I am" post, but I love when others do them. My friend Jonathan Tepper usually does one every year, and I always find something interesting on it. Tyler Cowen's 2016 non-fiction list is here, and is full of gems. The FT editors’ recently gave their suggestions too, Shane Parris has chimed in, and Toby has listed the favourites of FinTwitter where my suggestions, inexplicably, have been left out. No matter, however, because I have listed them all below.
Some of the titles invariably are from 2015, but I thought I that I would include them anyway. In addition, I should note that over half of them have been consumed via Audible. If you don't already have a subscription, go get one. I have separated fiction and non-fiction. I dare you not to find one or two that would be worth your time.
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